Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
